I’ve never read On the Beach and only got around to watching the movie on TV years after its theater release. Maybe I avoided it because of the emotionally draining story, the kind my 11th-grade lit teacher called “cathartic.” I ended up liking it very much. My sole criticism was the ceaseless playing of “Waltzing Matilda” until my head was ready to explode.
I recall a stirring scene between Ava Gardner and Gregory Peck. In a fury of incomprehension, she asks what could have caused the world’s leaders to order an all-out nuclear exchange. After all, it’s the ultimate geopolitical fuck-up, a step so breathlessly stupid that lunacy seems the only possible explanation. But the movie doesn’t deal in explanations, just consequences. Its focus is on the psychic torment of those remote from the bombing as they await the arrival of radiation poisoning.
Glutton for punishment that I am, I crave an apocalyptic movie in the same vein, but one that shows how the buildup to catastrophe can be plausible and insane at the same time. We badly need such a movie. Without it, we miss an invaluable chance to behold the macabre duality of human nature, our capacity for simultaneous sanity and madness.
It happens that the world stage is at this moment supplying a story line for such a movie. It’s a perfect prelude to On the Beach. I refer to the horrific war in Ukraine. Putin is the ideal villain. He’s 69. The clock is ticking. His dream of restoring the Soviet empire on his watch is fading. Snatching a tiny Baltic state will no longer qualify as progress. He needs a big win — Ukraine. The hero? There are two, Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, and NATO, the grand Western alliance that Trump sought to castrate.
As the drama unfolds, Putin and his generals badly miscalculate the course of the invasion. They expect quick progress, perhaps even open arms and bouquets in the Donbas region. Instead they meet ferocious resistance, especially in the approaches to major cities. Meanwhile, the sanctions of over 30 countries bite hard. 450 companies withdraw from Russia. The ruble loses nearly all its value, Russian banks are severed from Western banking, and the Moscow stock market is shuttered.
Russia answers with war crimes. They attack fleeing refugees; target apartments, hospitals, and bomb shelters; drop incendiary bombs on civilians. Zelensky exhorts NATO repeatedly. “Give us 1,000 missiles a day” and “Give us a no-fly zone or you are to blame for the deaths.” He urges the USA to be the leader of world peace; it is our moral duty.
Now the war is in an agonizing stasis: thousands dead on both sides, the Ukrainian infrastructure in rubble, the Russian economy shattered. But even stasis is unstable. The Ukrainian forces can hold the line or even strengthen with infusions from Poland, and time is on their side. In Russia, anger is growing as the economic blight advances, and the drip drip drip of truth will eventually pierce the propaganda.
Putin and his generals know this. They must have capitulation before the walls fall in, but how do they get it? All their options are bad. They could attack with biological or chemical weapons, but that would cause NATO to enter the fight in Ukraine. They could attack the supply lines propping up Ukraine, but that again would cause NATO to escalate. Worst of all, they could deploy tactical nuclear weapons. That would likely cause NATO to take their attack to Russia. Ultimately, any effort to press for capitulation leads to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia … and Ava Gardner’s question is answered.
I expect the Russian military will take out their trash rather than choose any of the catastrophic options. That assumes they aren’t too cowed to take the risk. The fate of humankind could rest on this assumption.